As reported earlier, the research group More in Common have released a research piece showing that a substantial majority of voters think an early election is needed – 18 per cent say it should be before the end of 2023, with a whopping 73 per cent think there should be an election by the end of May 2024. Only 15 per cent think it is right to wait until next Autumn and a mere 12per cent think that Sunak should go for the full term and not hold an election until January 2024.
This fits well with the overall position with the electorate from last weeks two spectacular by-elections and, frankly, the polling numbers almost ad infinitum. As George Osborne pithily put it “When the swing is on, its on”. In other words, has the moment come where Sunak and the team in Number 10 switch from desperate and frankly implausible hopes to win the next election and start playing the longer game. Which is about the state of the Tory party afterwards, the inevitable civil war within it, a putative takeover by everyone’s favourite rabble rouser (step forward (not-Sir) Nigel Farage and what it will take for the Tory party to successfully challenge again for power and when.
This may all feel very unfair to Sunak. He is displaying moments of managerial competence and while we disagree with decisions such as cancelling the northern leg of HS2 and scrapping building targets, they are at least decisions. And on the economy the cautious approach of his and Hunt to inflation and resisting tax cuts is absolutely correct, and we as a country will benefit from that work.
But in 1997 the Conservatives had done far better and had got the economy into a very good position under then Chancellor Ken Clarke. John Major was as thoroughly decent as Sunak is, and the Tories were still obliterated. When the nation has decided that change is needed it is simply impossible for the governing party of the last 13 years to pretend they are the agent of change. Remember Truss and Kwarteng trying exactly that over during the budget omnishambles.
Call it what you want. Time for change. When the swing is on. No-ones listening any more etc, the message for Sunak is simple – you cannot win.
Further, history shows that holding on to the end just makes it worse. This current cabinet already has the feel of a zombie government making up policies on the back of fag packets that they know they will never be in a position to implement. And the voters know it too, and the very act of delaying the moment of judgment adds dangerously to the sense of anger in the country.
Instead the smart move is to try and minimise the damage by wrongfooting a Labour party who are not fully there yet in respect of putting out their pitch to the public and assume that they have time. Further, why give the populists more time to organise within the party: an early election, contain the losses and then Sunak should hold fire against those who want to replace him as leader and stay to complete the task that history has afforded him: not of being a great reforming PM, but of being a great reforming party leader whose role is to get the Tories electable again.
Sometimes life does not give you what you want or think you deserve, but tilting against windmills has never worked for anyone. Sunak has a significant role in the political life and history of our country. Will he choose to do it, or will he selfishly choose to just hang on as PM a bit longer and thereby pay a faustian price of his reputation being tarnished in the history books for all time?
Related post: Where did all the money go? (thelondoneconomic.com)
