Daniel Leal/PA
Though some may have felt this government was on a hiding to nothing already, the decision to hold a General Election this summer could have existential consequences for the Tories – and Rishi Sunak is right in the cross hairs.
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Fresh from abandoning D-Day ceremonies to film an interview with ITV, the Prime Minister is the very definition of beleaguered – despite being just over two weeks into a campaign he called for himself.
His approval ratings have reached new lows, and his own character flaws appear to be fatal for the Conservative Party, who are now polling at under 20% in some surveys. Even their status as the opposition to a Labour government could be under threat.
The main parties are set to reveal their manifestos next week. It heralds the last throw of the dice for the PM, even with four weeks of campaigning left to go. His attack lines on taxes have also been debunked over the weekend.
Could things get any worse for Rishi Sunak? Oh, you bet. Data supplied by Deltapoll on Sunday has predicted a whopping Labour majority of over 400 seats – and it also has the Tory leader on course for a historic defeat at a local level.
The survey suggests a shock defeat for Sunak is on the cards, and he’s forecast to LOSE his seat as an MP on the current readings. Although the methodology differs from that of the Electoral Calculus, both pollsters are paint a glum picture.
The Calculus figures keep Sunak in the driving seat – but only have him down to win by a miserly margin of 5%. For a sitting Prime Minister, such a close contest is almost unheard of. And, if tactical voting is deployed, he could still find himself a goner.
As the MP for Richmond and Northallerton, he is on course to receive 43% of the vote, with Labour trailing on 38%. However, the combined Liberal Democrat and Green Party vote tallies about 7% – and a shift in allegiances could displace Sunak from office.
There’s another force the PM will have to contend with on home soil, too. Count Binface, fresh from gaining 24,000 votes in the London Mayoral Election and beating Britain First in the process, is set to run against the PM in his constituency.
Whether this would be enough to sway disillusioned Tory voters, and reduce Sunak’s vote share further, remains to be seen. But the fact his future as an MP is now in genuine peril, it just about sums up how far he and his party have sunk in recent times.
