Tories on track to lose 32 ‘red wall’ seats according to new polling figures

Voters in ‘red wall’ seats are growing increasingly disillusioned with the Conservative Party, new polling has shown.

A YouGov survey released to coincide with the party conference in Manchester shows the Tories and Labour are now neck and neck in the north of England, Midlands and north Wales constituencies which proved so crucial to Boris Johnson’s 2019 general election victory.

The Conservatives have dropped to 41 per cent in red wall areas – seven points down on the party’s 2019 result – while Labour are up two points to 40 per cent.

According to the company’s modelling, the result could put up to 32 seats back in play for Sir Keir Starmer’s party in traditional Labour-voting territory.

“Firmly back in Labour’s hands”

YouGov said four red wall Conservative constituencies would be “firmly back in Labour’s hands”, while another 14 would also be “likely to fall” to Starmer’s party and a further 14 would be too close to call.

Despite being encouraging news for Starmer, the 40 per cent poll showing in traditional Labour heartlands still represents a 10-point drop on the party’s 2017 result when Jeremy Corbyn was leader.

YouGov’s multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) modelling shows Redcar, North West Durham, Lincoln and Heywood and Middleton are the most likely red wall seats to fall to Labour at the next election.

The company’s latest results show a majority of the public now disapprove of the Tory government’s record to date – with 54 per cent saying they disapproved and only 26 per cent saying they approved.

“Increasingly dissatisfied”

Mr Johnson’s personal approval rating have dipped too, with 60 per cent of voters saying he is doing badly as prime minister and only 35 per cent saying he is doing well.

“The British public are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the government’s performance – including on key issues such as inflation – and are beginning to lose faith in Johnson as a leader,” wrote YouGov’s research manager Patrick English.

Speaking at the Tory conference in Manchester, chairman Oliver Dowden did not deny reports the party are preparing for a general election in 2023 – a year ahead of schedule.

“The PM told me to make sure that the Conservative Party machine is ready to go for an election whenever it comes,” Dowden told Sky News on Sunday.

Asked if there would be an early election, Dowden said: “Right now, we are absolutely focused on getting on with the job of making sure that we deliver for the British people.”]

Jack Peat

Jack is a business and economics journalist and the founder of The London Economic (TLE). He has contributed articles to VICE, Huffington Post and Independent and is a published author. Jack read History at the University of Wales, Bangor and has a Masters in Journalism from the University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne.