A week of disastrous poll results has got many Tory MPs discussing the prospect of a Canada 1993-style wipeout at the next election, per Bloomberg.
Research published on the front page of the Sunday Telegraph last week suggests Rishi Sunak’s party could hold on to as few as 169 seats as Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour enters Downing Street with 385 at the next election.
The polling indicated that every so-called “red wall” seat won by Boris Johnson in 2019 could be lost at the general election this year.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt could be one of 11 Cabinet ministers to lose their seats in what would be the biggest collapse in support for a governing party since 1906.
But the poll, as The London Economic predicted, was soon surpassed by research showing support for the party is now teetering near the high teens as Labour opens up a remarkable 27-point lead.
It has left some Tory MPs questioning (perhaps for the first time) whether a Canada 1993 outcome could be on the cards.
In 1993, the Tories in Canada came away with just two seats, taking them from a party with consecutive majorities in government to having no status at all.
Kim Campbell took charge of the party in June 1993 after Bill Mulroney resigned in the wake of declining popularity.
In the federal election in October of that year, the Progressive Conservatives were decimated, losing all but two seats from a previous majority, with Campbell losing her own.
Her 132-day premiership is the third-shortest in Canadian history.
Ten years later, the membership voted to dissolve the party and merge with the Canadian Alliance to form a new party altogether.
Such an outcome with the British Conservative Party isn’t completely off the cards, particularly given how split they are.
Political strategist Isaac Levido has warned feuding MPs at the 1922 backbench committee that “divided parties fail”, urging them to bond together to avoid a complete wipeout.
But that could be easier said than done.
The Conservatives face two by-elections in February, both of which they are expected to lose, followed by what Tory MPs fear will be a hugely damaging set of local election results.
Time, one Tory rebel told The Times, is running out.
“The local elections are the hard stop – realistically we can’t really change after the end of May.”
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