Remain surge pushes Labour to 35% in polls for first time

A surge in Remain voters backing Labour has pushed the party within seven points of The Conservatives with less than two weeks to go.

According to Survation just 39 per cent of Remainers were supporting Jeremy Corbyn’s party in mid November, but that total now sits at 49 per cent.

By contrast support for the Liberal Democrats and Greens from Remain voters has dropped as tactical voting appears to start to make an impact.

The Lib Dems were supported by 24 per cent of Remainers in the middle of November, that now sits at 21 per cent.

The Greens had 6 per cent of Remain support in the middle of November, it is now just 4 per cent.

“The Conservatives’ seemingly comfortable poll lead would soon be reduced”

Last month polling expert Professor John Curtice said that Boris Johnson’s lead could be reduced if Remain voters got behind the Labour leader.

He noted: “The Conservatives’ seemingly comfortable poll lead would soon be reduced if the Remain vote were to coalesce behind Labour, rather than be split between Mr Corbyn’s party and the Liberal Democrats who still have just under 30 per cent of the Remain vote.”

The Survation poll underscores ICM Research today that found Labour has moved to 35 per cent for the first time since the election was called.

Corbyn’s party is now within seven points of Boris Johnson’s Conservatives, who are up one point on 42 per cent.

Tactical voting

A new study today also found that find tactical voting could make all the difference between a comfortable Conservative victory and a hung parliament.

National polling data puts the Conservatives ahead on an 8 per cent lead, but also finds a high propensity among Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters to vote tactically.

But 48 per cent of Labour supporters and 55 per cent of Lib Dem supporters confirm they are likely to vote tactically to stop a Conservative candidate being elected in their constituency.

Using the latest MRP technology on marginal seat data in conjunction with this calculated tactical vote swing, research by Remain United predicts an election result of Con 318, Lab 242, Lib 18, SNP 50, resulting in a hung parliament.

If there is a further 2 per cent swing on our Remain United tactical voting recommendations, the Conservatives could return just 302 seats, Labour 256, Lib Dems 19 and SNP 51.

Jack Peat

Jack is a business and economics journalist and the founder of The London Economic (TLE). He has contributed articles to VICE, Huffington Post and Independent and is a published author. Jack read History at the University of Wales, Bangor and has a Masters in Journalism from the University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne.