France has been priced to leave the European Union by bookmaker William Hill following a stunning result for the National Rally in last night’s first round of parliamentary elections.
The right-wing party, under party president Jordan Bardella, secured the most votes in the first round of the surprise legislative elections on June 30 but not enough to claim overall victory.
The National Rally and its allies could secure a working majority in parliament in the final round on Sunday.
Or they could fall short, stymied at the last hurdle by opponents who still hope to prevent the formation of France’s first far-right government since the Second World War.
Both scenarios are fraught with uncertainty for France and its influence in Europe and beyond.
According to the bookies, it’s now 7/2 in the betting that the French vote to leave the EU before 2030, while they are 1/6 to stay put.
They are 4/1 favourites in a separate market for which country will leave the EU next, ahead of Italy and Hungary at 8/1, while a 2028 date is the likeliest year for Frexit at 5/1.
Spokesperson for William Hill, Lee Phelps, said: “Marine Le Pan’s sensational gains in the first round of parliamentary elections last night has left senior officials in the European Union looking over their shoulder at a potential Frexit, which we’ve priced at 7/2 to occur between now and the end of 2030.
“While the French are 1/6 to remain in the EU, it’s almost inconceivable a vote to leave is even on the cards, and they are the 4/1 favourites to cut ties with the union before any other current member, with Italy and Hungary making up the top three.
“Le Pan’s National Rally would of course need time to come into power and lay out plans for their exit policy, so 2028 seems the most likely year for the French to execute their departure at 5/1, followed by 2029 at 6/1.”
Odds on France to leave the EU before 2030
| Yes | 7/2 |
| No | 1/6 |
Next Country to leave the EU before 2030
| No country to leave | 1/5 |
| France | 4/1 |
| Italy | 8/1 |
| Hungary | 8/1 |
| Greece | 16/1 |
| BAR | 25/1 |
France to leave the EU in
| 2024 | 100/1 |
| 2025 | 66/1 |
| 2026 | 50/1 |
| 2027 | 16/1 |
| 2028 | 5/1 |
| 2029 | 6/1 |
| Not before 2030 | 1/6 |
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