Stefan Rousseau/PA
Who’d be a Tory right now? Well, according to a poll commissioned by GB News this week, it seems the answer to that question would be very few of us. Data collected by the Electoral Calculus paints a devastating picture for the Conservative Party.
Let’s start with their own dire forecast. According to the survey, the Tories are set to scrape little more than 23% of the vote. However, that only translates into the equivalent of 66 SEATS in Parliament. These are extinction-level numbers.
Should these figures hold true, the Tories would still be the second-most popular party, but hold less than half of seats among all opposition MPs. In fact, the projection has them sitting with just SEVEN more seats than the Liberal Democrats.
“Labour’s lead in the polls would translate into a substantial majority in the House of Commons. Allowing for tactical voting, the Conservatives would only just be larger than the Liberal Democrats in parliament. In Scotland, the SNP also look to be overtaken by Labour.” | Electoral Calculus
The likes of Oliver Dowden, James Cleverly, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, and Kemi Badenoch are all on course to lose their seats at this election, as per the large-scale polling. Meanwhile, Labour would be looking at a result that would eclipse 1997.
They are predicted to earn a whopping 485 seats in total, making this the largest win by any party in more than 90 years. An outright majority is also now looking overwhelmingly likely, with the EC giving a 97% chance of a non-coalition Labour government.
As an aside, Reform are projected to earn a substantial amount of the vote at 11%, but currently, they are not forecast to win a single seat in the House of Commons. The Green Party, however, are predicted to return two MPs at the General Election.
You can read through the Electoral Calculus Data here
