Labour has maintained a healthy lead of 15 points in the polls, with 44 per cent of the vote share compared to 29 per cent for the Conservatives.
The Liberal Democrats have 9 per cent (+1) of the vote share and the SNP remain on 3 per cent. Reform UK have remained on 7 per cent while the Green Party have dropped from 6 per cent to 4 per cent (-2).
Rishi Sunak’s approval rating has dropped back to -14 per cent (-6) after improving in the last poll, with 28 per cent approving (-3) and 43 per cent disapproving (+4).
Keir Starmer is on -2 (-2) with 31 per cent approving (n/c) and 33 per cent disapproving (+2).
Half expect Labour to be largest party at the next election
Half of voters expect the Labour Party to be the largest party at the next general election – including 30 per cent expecting a Labour majority – while only 22 per cent expect the Conservatives to be the largest party.
2019 Conservatives are more evenly divided. Two in five still expect Labour to be the largest party while 35 per cent expect the Tories the Conservatives to be the largest party.
Labour support is down to cost of living, health and public services, Tory support is economic policy, immigration, and leadership
When asked why they are voting for the party they chose, 43 per cent of voters said their party’s cost-of-living policies, health policies (30 per cent), economic policies (30 per cent) and their leadership (28 per cent).
Issues such as approach to public services (22 per cent), immigration policies (20 per cent) and approach to EU (20 per cent) fall further down the list.
Loss of trust a barrier to Conservative revival
For those 2019 Conservatives who no longer say they will vote Conservative, 52 per cent say the main reason is that they have lost trust in the Conservatives – significantly larger than any other answer. One in seven (16 per cent) say a key reason is because the Conservatives are running country poorly, and 7 per cent blame the poor premiership of either Johnson or Truss.
Similarly, amongst the smaller group who have directly switched from the Conservatives to Labour, 48 per cent say they have done so because they trust Labour more than the Conservatives.
Adam Drummond, head of political and social research at Opinium, commented: “Generally Labour are ahead on vote share because of the cost of living situation and an absolute cratering of trust in the Conservative party.
“Voters think that the Conservatives are more likely to share their views on crime than Labour are when we ask what approach they want and what they think each party wants.
“However, despite this, Labour lead on the issue overall and the government is struggling to get traction because voters don’t believe that they are capable of improving things.
“The lack of faith in institutions like the police or the courts and justice system are a symptom of a general ‘stuff in Britain doesn’t work’ feeling that the government have to tackle if they are to have any chance at the next election.”
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