In the upcoming 2024 general election, Labour is set to tackle a historic challenge as they strive for victory, facing an unprecedented swing requirement. New research indicates that Sir Keir Starmer will need a substantial 12.7-point swing from the Conservatives to secure the position of prime minister. This surpasses the 10.2-point swing achieved by Tony Blair in the 1997 landslide and marks more than double the swing observed in any election since 1945.
The task at hand for Sir Keir is further complicated by extensive boundary changes, the first since 2010, aimed at ensuring equitable representation by aligning constituency voter numbers. Conducted independently by the Boundary Commissions for England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, the changes have impacted nearly 88% of the 650 Commons seats.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak recently indicated the likelihood of a general election in the second half of the year, with October or November being considered as probable dates.
Analysis by professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher suggests that the boundary changes offer a modest advantage to the Conservatives. Notional results for the 2019 general election, if fought on the new constituencies, reveal a shift in the distribution of seats. The Conservatives would defend a notional majority of 94, compared to the actual 80 majority achieved in 2019. The analysis shows the Conservatives gaining seven seats, Labour losing two, the Liberal Democrats losing three, and Plaid Cymru dropping from four to two seats.
The changes allocate 543 seats to England, an increase of 10, while Wales sees a reduction of eight seats to 32. Scotland will have 57 seats, down two, and Northern Ireland remains unchanged with 18 seats.
Despite the reduction in Scottish seats, the SNP remains at 48 seats, while Northern Ireland maintains its status quo with the DUP at eight, Sinn Fein at seven, SDLP at two, and Alliance at one.
The Boundary Commissions were tasked with ensuring new constituencies have an electorate within 5% of 73,392, the total number of voters on March 2, 2020, divided by 650, the number of Commons seats. This resulted in constituencies having electorates between 69,724 and 77,062, with only five “island seats” exempt.
Following the 2019 election, a direct swing of seven percentage points was needed for Labour to become the largest party in a hung parliament. Due to the boundary changes, this requirement has increased to 8.3 percentage points.
In Sir Keir’s pursuit of an overall majority, the 12.7-point swing requirement is higher than the previous 12 points on the old boundaries. A swing greater than 4.2 and less than 12.7 is likely to lead to a hung parliament.
It’s essential to note that focusing solely on the direct swing between Conservatives and Labour assumes no change in the share of votes for other parties. Professors Rallings and Thrasher suggest that, for instance, a 10-point swing from the SNP to Labour could yield 15 gains for Sir Keir under the new boundaries, potentially easing his path to Downing Street.
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