Labour’s lead has risen to 15-points in the latest Opinium poll as the party’s share of the vote rises to 41 per cent.
The Conservatives continue to trail behind with 26 per cent (n/c), whilst the Liberal Democrats have 11 per cent (+1) of the vote share and Reform UK have 9 per cent (-1).
The Green Party vote share remains the same at 7 per cent.
Rushi Sunak’s approval rating remains poor, with 24 per cent approving and 47 per cent disapproving (-4). We see a small recovery in Keir Starmer’s approval rating, with 29 per cent approving (n/c) and 34 per cent disapproving (-3).
The ratings for who the public believe would make the best Prime Miniter have narrowed slightly, with Starmer still in the lead on 27 per cent, compared to 24 per cent who would pick Rushi Sunak – compared to 28 per cent for Starmer and 23 per cent for Sunak a fortnight ago.
There is scope for considerable movement in vote share before the next election, with many voters not having fully made up their minds at this point in time.
Over half (55 per cent) of those who intend to vote think there is a chance they will change their mind before the next election, and only 45 per cent of voters say they have completely made up their mind on who to vote for.
Just over half (54 per cent) of current Labour voters think they “will definitely vote for this party and won’t change their mind before the election”, with 46 per cent believing there is a small (36 per cent) or good (10 per cent) chance they will change their mind.
Current Conservative voters are less certain of their vote choice; 44 per cent are sure they won’t change their mind, but 56 per cent say there is a small (39 per cent) or good (17 per cent) chance they will change their minds.
Following the government’s ‘stop the boats’ week, immigration has overtaken energy and power as one of the top 3 issues facing the country for the first time this year.
The top three issues are health / NHS (63 per cent), the economy (50 per cent), and now immigration (33 per cent). Energy / power (29 per cent) is now in fourth place as one of the most important issues facing the UK, followed by housing and house prices (21 per cent).
Despite small boats week increasing the salience of immigration as a key issue from 29 per cent to 33 per cent, Labour’s lead on it has increased from 6 points to 8 points – with 29 per cent now saying they’d trust a Starmer Labour government on immigration, vs 21 per cent for a Sunak Conservative government.
James Crouch, Head of Policy and Public Affairs at Opinium said: “The Conservative focus on small boats this week appears to have worked… to an extent.
“The public now see immigration as a top three issue, moving above energy (although even if the weather is rubbish, it is still summer). Reducing illegal immigration is also joint top of the list for former Conservative voters when we ask what could sway their vote back to the Tories.
“However, as if to illustrate the dangers of raising the salience of an issue you are not fully in control of, while more people say immigration is an important issue this week, Labour’s lead on the issue has also increased, as has their general lead on share of the vote.”
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