Hundreds of Conservative Party MPs are facing an existential showdown when the polls open on Thursday 4 July. However, few have the same public profile of Jacob Rees-Mogg – and he’s set to face an absolute drubbing.
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The senior Tory, former Cabinet member, and highly controversial champion of the right-wing has been leaking support steadily for the past 18-24 months. Despite his prominence within the party, voters in his Somerset North East constituency are turning.
Rees-Mogg was voted in with a large majority five years ago. He has held this seat for the past 14 years. However, a myriad of scandals have left the Tories facing an electoral wipeout next month – and he is now an odds-on casualty.
The latest data from both UK Polling Report and the Electoral Calculus are in alignment, and they project that it is now highly likely he’ll lose his seat as an MP to Dan Norris, the candidate put forward by the Labour Party.
Once seen as a Tory safe seat, Somerset North East now looks like a hostile battleground for Rees-Mogg and his colleagues. The latest estimates predict that he will only return 21% to 33% of the public vote – falling way short of the 55% he recorded in 2019.
By contrast, Norris is forecast to earn 44% to 45% of the electorate’s support – giving him a comfortable margin of victory in either scenario. According to the Electoral Calculus, the chances of Jacob Rees-Mogg retaining his seat are as low as 23%.
Similar projections also have Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Conservative Deputy Chair Jonathan Gullis down as other well-known government representatives heading for disaster in July. However, their odds to cling-on are slightly more favourable than JRM’s.
