Richard Holden, the chair of the Conservative Party, has recently shared insights hinting at the possibility of an earlier-than-expected general election in the spring. Despite previous speculations that Downing Street preferred to wait until the autumn, Holden disclosed that there is still a “one-third” chance that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak might opt for a May election.
These revelations come on the heels of a new poll indicating that Sir Keir Starmer is the preferred choice for Prime Minister in 390 seats across England, Wales, and Scotland. In stark contrast, Rishi Sunak emerges as the top choice in only four constituencies.
Adding to the political intrigue, Boris Johnson’s former chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, claimed to have held confidential discussions with the current Prime Minister concerning the possibility of returning as a No 10 strategist before the election.
Despite the uphill battle the Conservative Party faces, Richard Holden mentioned that the party could potentially kick-start an election campaign just a few months after Jeremy Hunt’s spring Budget, scheduled for March 6. Holden stated, “The chance of a May election is about a third. It is more likely to be at the back end of the year. My job is to be ready whenever it happens,” during an interview with The Mail on Sunday.
Moreover, Holden hinted at the likelihood of fresh personal tax cuts being announced in the March Budget, while downplaying reports of the Prime Minister and Chancellor considering scrapping inheritance tax. Regarding this matter, he emphasized the importance of tax cuts that benefit as many people as possible.
Holden expressed optimism about the Conservative Party’s prospects in the 2024 elections, citing that traditional Tory voters could return to the fold due to the perceived threat of Keir Starmer, whom some view as an enigmatic figure.
Despite the potential for an early election in the first half of the year, Tory election strategist Isaac Levido has reportedly earmarked November 14 as a likely election date, as reported by The Sunday Times.
As election anticipation builds, a comprehensive seat-by-seat analysis conducted by Focaldata for the Best for Britain campaign group indicates that Keir Starmer is currently outperforming Rishi Sunak in numerous constituencies when it comes to being the preferred Prime Minister.
On a national level, Starmer leads Sunak by 32 percent to 22 percent. The only constituencies where Sunak surpasses Starmer are Braintree, Castle Point, Clacton, and North Bedfordshire, as well as among undecided voters.
The poll also reveals that a significant majority of voters, 61 percent, are in favor of an early general election by May at the latest, while only 17 percent prefer to wait until autumn for the vote.
Amidst the political discourse, the Tories have alleged that Labour’s promise to invest £28 billion in green jobs would result in a £2,200 annual tax burden on working families. In response, a Labour spokesperson dismissed these claims as “total garbage and a desperately absurd claim from a Tory Party which has increased taxes on working people.”
Meanwhile, Rishi Sunak is reported to have sought advice from Dominic Cummings as he pursued a “secret deal” with him to enhance the Tories’ chances in the upcoming election. Cummings revealed that he advised Sunak to abandon his cautious economic approach, hold an emergency Budget, resolve NHS strikes, and double the income tax threshold at which people pay the 40p rate, from £50,271 to £100,000.
Additionally, Cummings purportedly advocated leaving the European Convention on Human Rights as part of a plan to reinvigorate the Rwanda deportation scheme. Downing Street has not denied the account of a secret meeting but clarified that no job offer was extended. A Downing Street source stated, “It was a broad discussion about politics and campaigning, no job was offered.”
In a separate development, Arron Banks, a financier of the Brexit campaign, has expressed his intention to raise £10 million from Tory donors who may defect to Reform UK if Nigel Farage returns to lead the party. Banks highlighted Farage’s unique appeal in reaching red-wall seats, suggesting that Nigel’s involvement could significantly boost Reform UK’s prospects.
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