This article originally appeared in our Elevenses newsletter.
Good morning. Voters fled the Conservatives in predictably large droves on Thursday as the party’s poor handling of the pandemic and the subsequent autumn of discontent under Liz Truss finally caught up with them. A bacon sandwich-wielding Rishi Sunak cut a suitably forlorn figure as he turned up to the Conservative Campaign Headquarters in central London the following morning, telling staffers that amongst the doom and gloom there were some wins, like picking up two seats in Sandwell (Labour gained four and held 18 more) and making marginal gains in Peterborough and Bassetlaw.
But while the prime minister’s bluff and bluster approach to his electoral hammering might have been misguided, his subsequent Labour attack line was not. Speaking to broadcasters, he said the losses might have been significant, but he was “not detecting any massive groundswell of movement towards the Labour Party or excitement for its agenda”. The numbers certainly bear that out. Of the 1,061 councillors shed by the Conservatives, only half were lost to Labour, with the Lib Dems and the Green Party making significant inroads instead. Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice said the results were due to Conservative failure rather than Labour success, predicting that Sir Keir Starmer’s party would fall 14 seats short of a majority if the vote was replicated on a national level.
Labour has been quick to dismiss talks of a coalition this week, with Wes Streeting rolled out to do the Monday morning media rounds to ensure the narrative that his party will romp home in 2024 doesn’t get skewed. “I know the Conservative Party would love us to be talking about whether or not there will be a coalition after the next general election,” the shadow health secretary said. “We think we can win a majority. That’s what we’re working towards, that’s what we’re fighting for.”
But we all know the dance, right? And even if the Labour Party might not be saying the dreaded C word, it is certainly thinking about it. This morning, the SNP set out its terms for propping up a Labour minority government, saying it would seek to “undo Brexit as far as possible” by pushing for the UK to rejoin Erasmus and Horizon Europe and defend the European Court of Justice. It is a softening of their previous ‘give us a shot at independence or nothing’ approach which is reflective of the party’s current standing, but still, Brexit-related terms will only be marginally more palatable for Sir Keir, who is still clinging on to his ‘Tory lite’ approach.
This leaves the Liberal Democrats, who have abandoned their calls for a rerun of the EU referendum in a bid to hoover up Blue Wall seats. Sir Ed Davey, the party’s leader, left open the door on Sunday to a post-election pact, saying his focus is on getting rid of Conservative MPs. But Davey too will have an asking price for teaming up with Labour. Early indications suggest changing Britain’s voting system to a more proportional model could be it. Given that the Labour conference supported electoral reform only last year it could chart a smoother course for Starmer. It is either that or he relies on resentment of the Tory Party to grow to such levels as to deliver a majority. But in the words of Professor Curitce, it would not be wise for him to depend on it.
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