Kin Cheung/PA
This article originally appeared in our Elevenses newsletter.
The Labour Party has been up to its old tricks as the cut-off for calling a May general election to coincide with the date for the local elections edges closer. Dispatches sent to supporter inboxes this week gave the impression that a spring date is all but set in stone, while the GIF currently doing the rounds in Labour WhatsApp groups is one of Justin Timberlake miming for the camera in the video for the NSYNC song It’s Gonna Be Me which has been switched out for ‘It’s Gonna Be May’ to indicate when they think the general election will be. This is generally considered acceptable ‘banter’ within Westminster circles.
Gracefully, Elevenses readers will know that such moves amount to little more than clever politicking from Labour, who will be waiting for the moment Rishi Sunak dashes hopes of a spring election so they can paint him as weak and cowardly. As we note in a number of early dispatches this week, the prime minister would be mad to go to the electorate now with the polls looking as they do and the economy in recession. Governments that are in trouble tend to delay things as long as they can on the “something may turn” theory of political decision-making. At this rate, we may not see an election until 2025.
After all, this isn’t a government that is just in trouble. This is a government that is properly in trouble. Up a creek, surrounded by excrement, snagged on a rock with all methods of propulsion having long gone overboard. One poll out last week suggested the Tories would be left with just 25 seats in Parliament if an election was held tomorrow, or put another way, a bleed of 351 seats. Reasons for the rapid decline aren’t hard to come by. It’s hard to think of an administration more beset by scandals than this one in recent political history. But it strikes me that we have been missing two quite obvious and fundamental points that might be the most electorally destructive.
The first is how woefully out of step the party is with the public’s priorities. They talk non-stop about cutting taxes yet when Jeremy Hunt slashed national insurance by 2p in the budget there was a muted reaction among the public in the polls. Similarly, when Rishi Sunak tried to show he is ‘on the side of motorists’ by commissioning a report on low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs) he was forced to bin it when the Department for Transport concluded that they are actually popular and effective. Ultimately, when you can’t drive your car without fear of tumbling through potholes, can’t get ill without fear of ever getting a GP appointment and can’t turn the heating on without fear of bankruptcy, a clampdown on LTNs doth butter no parsnips.
And while you consider that, have you ever taken a moment to consider how utterly unremarkable the Tory’s five priorities are? Time was that growing the economy and keeping inflation in check was something a government was expected to do, not mark up on a billboard in the hope that it will make them more attractive to the electorate. Same goes for NHS waiting lists (should trend down) and government debt (likewise). And as for small boats, which is a problem of their own making, they have failed spectacularly in coming up with a solution that is either workable or popular, which is remarkable when you consider Boris Johnson – to give him his due – always managed to achieve at least the latter.
If Rishi Sunak thinks all that can get voters on side then I’m afraid to say that 25 seats could actually seem ambitious. Time to move over, methinks, and let the grown-ups have a go.
Sign up to Elevenses for free here: www.thelondoneconomic.com/newsletter
