This article originally appeared in our Elevenses newsletter.
Good morning and a very happy New Year to you. An election year, no less, if the prime minister’s promises are to be believed, who judging by the weather we’re experiencing now doesn’t fancy the prospect of a damp and dreary campaign in January 2025, the latest point at which he can send the country to the polls. That the decision rests with a man who wasn’t even voted in by members of his own party is an affront to our democracy, made worse by the fact that poll after poll shows strong support for a contest at the earliest possible opportunity. As Caroline Lucas rightly put it, the country shouldn’t be expected to wait purely because Rishi Sunak is terrified of a thumping defeat. But then, why would he cut his premiership short, one person added, when there is still so much to f**k up?
But powerless as that may sound, Labour has devised a rather cunning way of forcing the PM’s hand on the issue, or at the very least, making him look incredibly weak. Rumours of an election in May were deftly planted by the party over the festive period, with Labour pouncing on Jeremy Hunt’s announcement that the spring budget would be presented in early March as evidence that the Tories are gearing up to go to the polls. In actual fact, there is nothing particularly remarkable about the date – 6th March – which matches up with a budget given by Sunak himself in 2021 (3rd March) as well as in 2020 (11th March) and 2017 (8th March). And even so, no amount of tax giveaways can save their bacon this time around. The country really isn’t as bothered about cuts to inheritance tax as the Conservatives would like them to be.
Emily Thornberry, nonetheless, deserved an Oscar for her performance on Sky News, where she made out that talk of a May election was far more than parliamentary gossip and was, in fact, gospel. In her words, that Britain is going to the polls in the spring is the “worst kept secret” in Westminster, with Labour ready to go when the moment comes. Of course, that was complete speculation, but it didn’t help Mr Sunak who was forced to confront the issue head-on with a Groundhog Day interview where he repeated the same pre-planned response twice on the same news channel Thornberry used to plant the seed.
Labour has been on the front foot ever since, launching a petition demanding a general election now that requires a sign-up so they can pepper voters with campaign messages in the run-up to the election. Captioning the tweet with “Rishi’s bottled it. We say bring it on”, the message was drilled home by Sir Keir who hit out at “weak” and “dithering” Sunak for claiming “squatters’ rights” on Downing Street. Expect to hear more of the same from shadow ministers doing the media rounds this weekend. Indeed, as I write this, Jonathan Ashworth has just asked why Sunak has “postponed” the election on Good Morning Britain.
It all leaves Conservative HQ with a big question. With the polls consistently showing a healthy lead for Labour, does the time afforded by an autumn election as opposed to a spring election give them enough wiggle room to turn their fortunes around, or does it simply provide ample opportunity for Labour to hammer home its core message to voters: that Rishi is weak, that he dithers and that he is not the people’s choice for prime minister. I would attest earnestly that the longer they go, the worse it could get.
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