Results from elections held in various battleground US states yesterday indicate that the Democrats may be on course to win the presidential election next year, notwithstanding the recent polls showing Donald Trump leading over Joe Biden.
The most interesting result was in Virginia, which is what is known as a bellwether state in the US. In every one of the last four presidential elections, the party that won the election for the state Senate the year before the presidential election has gone on to win the presidency. With 38 of the 40 seats now officially called the Democrats have 21 seats and therefore a majority. The Democrats have also won 51 of the 100 seats in the Virginia House of Representatives, giving them a double majority and full control of the legislature.
This result also represents a further blow for the Republicans as the Governor of Virgina, Glenn Youngkin, popular in the party and a slightly less right-wing (or perhaps saner) version of Trump, was expected to use a win in the elections as a springboard to challenge for the nomination. That hope now looks like it lies in tatters.
Behind these results lies the issue of fertility rights and the Supreme Court decision to reverse Roe vs Wade, which the Democrats have successfully weaponised to encourage younger and in particular female voters to turn out. With Trump having publicly supported the Court’s decision and subsequent moves to restrict access to abortion, as indeed he probably has to in order to maintain his support from the extremist MAGA wing of the party, the Democrats will likely make the issue a central plank of their campaign next year.
With referendums in Kansas, Kentucky and Montana having rejected restriction of abortion rights earlier in the year, Ohio (normally a safe Republican state) followed the same pattern last night with a proposal which would enshrine the right of individuals “to make and carry out one’s own reproductive decisions” carried with 56 per cent of the vote. Similarly in Kentucky, the Democratic governor of the Republican-leaning state and abortion rights champion Andy Beshear won re-election with 52.5 per cent of the vote.
Indeed Beshear is an interesting politician gaining popularity in the state through competent government and surefooted handling of several crises including COVID, extreme weather events leading to tornadoes and flooding and the Louisville bank mass shooting. Some commentators are already openly wondering what lead the Democrats would have if Beshear was on the ballot next November. Even if he does not challenge Biden, and it is difficult to challenge a sitting president from within his own party, a popular, competent Southern governor with liberal credentials could be a knockout proposition in 2028.
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