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Two major by-elections are set to take place in the UK this week, with seats in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth up for grabs. Both constituencies saw a huge Conservative majority in 2019 – but recent government scandals have blown the race wide open.
Voters in Mid Bedfordshire will be seeking a replacement for the absent Nadine Dorries. The high-profile Tory took an age to vacate the seat, after declaring her resignation months before. The nature of her departure – allegedly due to her missing out on a peerage – has angered locals.
There is now a good chance that the Tories could be punished for their behaviour – a theme that also runs true in Tamworth. The former incumbent MP, Chris Pincher, was ousted after he was accused of groping two men during a night out in London.
Both seats promise to deliver a tight and absorbing race for power when the polls open on Thursday 19 October. Majorities of more than 20,000 are almost certain to be decimated. Should the Tories lose either seat, it’ll rank amongst the biggest swings on record.
However, there are concerns that the biggest threat to Labour and the Liberal Democrats is each other. In Mid Bedfordshire, Labour and the Tories are currently polling at 29%, with the Lib Dems trailing on 22%. Neither party in opposition will drop out of the race.
Though some progressive groups are asking voters to back Labour on ‘tactical voting’ grounds, the Lib Dem camp argues that their party traditionally performs better in southern constituencies. The picture is a little clearer in Tamworth, though.
Labour are also level-pegging with the Tories – but the Liberal Democrats have trailed off. Those committed to ‘getting the Tories out’ have a somewhat simpler choice here. But it remains to be seen if lightning can strike twice this week…
