Well, isn’t this something? There have been few election campaigns as dramatic as the one we’re witnessing over in Canada at the moment. Just a few months ago, the Liberal Party – then helmed by Justin Trudeau – appeared dead and buried. But thanks to Trump, they’re now alive and kicking.
ALSO READ: Trump says Canada would ‘cease to exist’ without US support
Canada Election: Liberals set to secure unlikely victory
There has been a remarkable turnaround in public sentiment since Donald Trump took office. One of his first acts in his second term was to declare his intentions to make Canada the 51st state of America, before making them the first target of his increasingly unstable tariff wars.
Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservatives, was cruising towards victory. Riding on a wave on ‘anti-woke sentiment’ and railing against an unpopular Prime Minister, the opposition frontman topped the opinion polls across the board.
However, his pro-Trump positioning has come back to haunt him. Adrian Beaumont, an Election Analyst at the University of Melbourne, has credited the Liberal surge largely down to this factor:
“The most important reason for the Liberals’ poll surge is Trump. Trump’s tariffs against Canada and his talk of making Canada the 51st US state have greatly alienated Canadians and made it more difficult for the more pro-Trump Conservatives.” | Adrian Beaumont
Trump alignment kills momentum behind Conservative movement
Trudeau and his party looked like a busted flush by the turn of the year. Some markets gave them a next-to-zero per-cent chance of winning the General Election, which is set to be held on Monday 28 April. Now, not only are they favourites – but they could well end up with a majority.
That’s according to the final MRP Poll issued by YouGov this weekend. The researchers are predicting that the Liberals will surge to victory, from a point of almost certain defeat. Former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney replaced Trudeau in February – and has been an instant hit with voters.
How voters turned away from pro-Trump candidate, following trade war and territory rows
As it stands, the party are forecast to take the first majority in Canada for the last 10 years, avoiding a hung parliament by 27 seats. However, lower-end estimates of the wide-ranging survey suggest that Carney and the Liberals could still end up falling short of complete control of the house.
By the way, if you haven’t seen what all this looks like in graph form… try and take it in: