Conservative MPs Penny Mordaunt, Liz Truss and Jacob Rees-Mogg have drifted significantly in William Hill’s betting in the last few weeks, and are now behind Labour in their respective constituencies.
Mordaunt was 8/11 to hold her seat of Portsmouth North but is now 7/4 behind Labour’s Amanda Martin, who has shortened from even-money into 2/5 in the same period.
Even more dramatically, Truss’ odds of retaining South West Norfolk have swung from an odds-on 1/4 last month to 6/5 now, placing her behind Labour candidate Terry Jermy, who is priced at 8/11 having been 11/10 last month.
Rees-Mogg has held the North East Somerset and Hanham seat since its creation in 2010, but may have to relinquish control, as he’s drifted to 10/3 from 13/8 a few weeks ago, with Labour firm favourites at 1/5.
Spokesperson for William Hill, Lee Phelps, said: “With talk of a Labour landslide since the General Election was announced in May we would have expected to see a bit of a Conservative revival, especially among their big name MPs in southern constituencies where they are historically strong.
“However, if anything, the opposite has occurred, and confidence appears low in key figures like Penny Mordaunt, Liz Truss and Jacob Rees-Mogg, who have all drifted in the betting in the last few weeks, so much so that they are now predicted to lose their seats to Labour.
“Truss has seen the most marked drift, out from 1/4 at the beginning of June to her current odds of 6/5, while Mordaunt is 7/4 from 8/11, and the Tories could lose control of North East Somerset and Hanham for the first time, with Rees-Mogg out to 10/3 in the betting from 13/8.”
Portsmouth North odds
| Labour | 2/5 |
| Conservatives (Penny Mordaunt) | 7/4 |
| Reform UK | 16/1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 150/1 |
| Green Party | 150/1 |
South West Norfolk odds
| Labour | 8/11 |
| Conservatives (Liz Truss) | 6/5 |
| Independent | 16/1 |
| Reform UK | 22/1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 250/1 |
| Green Party | 250/1 |
North East Somerset and Hanham odds
| Labour | 1/5 |
| Conservatives (Jacob Rees-Mogg) | 10/3 |
| Reform UK | 20/1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 33/1 |
| Green Party | 150/1 |
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